* working capital of $0.12 per share with no LT debt
* multiple light oil well drilling locations in Viewfield, SK
* carried interests with no drilling costs
* natural gas at Pembina – 10-12 additional locations identified
Thanks Tara you make some good points and clearly looked into the company in depth as I'd hoped you would.
Yes share count is fairly high...but at today's close the market cap is about 17 million dollars. To me that's what it's about. Heck if they wanted to consolidate 1 for 10 and have a $1.70 company making 20 cents a share (in the rearview mirror) then really again, there isn't much downside other than maybe temporary (not that I think they would do this but even if they did fine)
As for huge growth, start up costs for these clinics is nice and low (which obviously can be a plus and a minus ie lack of barriers for competition) so I was mainly speaking organic, although who knows what they have in the works. As I said the chairman of the board of Futuremed Healthcare income fund sits on the AHG board so I wouldn't rule anything out (he was buying AHG shares in December). And as I said there are clinics in the city I live and they are busy as hell. People getting sick is a recession proof business. We'll take the 'huge' out and just go with growth ;-)
I'm not sure we will know (or I certainly don't) the synergies and/or the overlap that was eliminated from the MedEmerg deal until full year 09 is announced. I would imagine some of them may not be realized as of yet but this management team seems solid, and I think they do intend on running a lean machine, so I'm guessing quite a bit of overlap will or has been eliminated.
I think Section 10 appears to be just standard boilerplate and there are no lawsuits of any size or probabilty of affecting the company, otherwise they would be mentioned. Looking at the financials these guys seem to list every possible risk involved with the company, so if there were anything I believe it would be mentioned in detail.
Not sure of any institution or fund that would be interested in pushing the stock up. Again, this could be the usual message board rumours but I have heard personally off the message boards from someone with a fairly large number of shares that the plan is in the works to move to the Toronto exchange (I know this is probably the plan for most if not all Venture listed companies, so take it for what it's worth)
When looking at insider buying you'd have to look to SEDI not Canadian insider as it only lists the last 10 transactions, and with AHG the 10 are taken up with the share swap and options granted at 23 cents.
In early December John G. McLaughlin bought 150,000 shares at 17 cents. Not a huge buy but I do like people who put their money where their mouths are. Other than being chairman of the board of Futuremed and I quote
"From 1984 to 2002 he was with Extendicare Inc. During this time he acted as President & Chief Operating Officer of Extendicare Health Services Inc. (one of the largest providers of nursing and rehabilitation services in the United States) and as Managing Director (Chief Executive Officer) of Extendicare (UK) Ltd. (one of the largest providers of nursing home and acute care hospital businesses in that country)."
To have him involved and buying shares (sure, only about $25,000 worth but still) is the tipping point that finally sold me on the stock.
This is one I'm looking to put away and hold for a year at least, so don't get me wrong this isn't a quick flip. Someone is selling shares...probably in relation to the MedEmerg acquistion and who knows how many are to come out.
With the current P/E of about 8.5-9 based on today's close downside has to be almost nil (but always worth having the old stink bid in in case some decides to temporarily flood the market). I'll probably pick up a few more tomorrow if they are still there at 17 cents. In my honest opinion I could see the stock tripling in the foreseeable future if all goes well. A 50 million dollar market cap doesn't seem unreasonable for what the future hopefully holds. May seem a little optimistic at this point, but that's how I roll... ;-)
Tara
Posted: Tue Feb 23 9:36:11 2010
knob, where to begin...
It's not a bad play, I had looked at it before. But I don't feel as excited as you do for the following reasons:
- too many shares for my taste (over 100M) which means the possibility of consolidation is always out there, especially when you have cash flow problems and need to dilute every now and then. But that's only my opinion, and others might not see that way, some people will love to have lots of shares out there to increase liquidity
- well yes, cash flow problems, which explains the recent financing(debenture)
- profitable, yes, and like you said, in the order of 2 cents per share for the year(including dilution ?), which means it's trading at about 10 times earnings. There are bigger bargains out there.
- huge growth potential, please explain. Further acquisition? With what cash? Further dilution and fear of consolidation? You get my drift, or are you talking about organic growth in a magnitude I don't see?
- tell me, how far are they in the restructuring after the MedEmerg acquisition, have they slashed the combined management team to obtain equivalent fixed cost savings? Any redundancy which still needs to be adressed and could further enhance the bottom line?
- gotta be careful, 11.3M$ in shareholder equity, but there's 10M in Goodwill and intangibles
- how many shares of real free float are out there, how many are floating that will need to be turned over for a price hike?
- any institutional or large known holder(like a fund) who will have a vested interest in pushing it up?
- section 10 of the latest financials, do you know of any lawsuits against the company, or stemming from the last acquisition that were transferred?
- I don't see any insider transaction, othe than the acquisition swap. Share buyback would be interesting.
Don't get me wrong, it's not bad, there's no major finger pointing that I can see, but I just don't get the feeling of a home run like you do (from the metrics, the price push possibility due to the float size, etc.). They're profitable, and if they cut the fixed costs from the acquisition (synergy) then I think you'll do well and make some "mula"...
knobizumi
Posted: Wed Feb 17 20:18:39 2010
I'd be interested in Tara's and a few other's view of this company. Seems incredibly undervalued.
-Currently trading at 17.5 cents
-Market cap of about $18 million
-Will have revenues for 2009 exceeding $50 million
-Should earn close to 1.8 - 2 cents a share for 2009 (yes, it's profitable)
-Huge growth potential
-Debt seems quite manageable
-They have clinics in my city (London) and they are busy as hell.
-Chairman of the board of Futuremed Healthcare Income Fund (FMD.UN) sits on the AHG board also and was buying shares in December....I see the possibility in the future for these two companies to be 'related' in some way.
http://www.aimhealthgroup.com/overview.htm
Here's an excerpt from their third quarter earnings release.
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AIM Health Group Inc. continues increased quarterly profits
18:06 EST Monday, November 30, 2009
TORONTO, Nov. 30 /CNW/ - AIM Health Group Inc. ("AIM" or the "Company") (TSXV - AHG), a fully integrated health care company, announced today that its net income for the three month period ended September 30, 2009 (the "Quarter") increased to $633,199 from $12,319 in the same period in 2008. At the same time EBITDA(1) increased 290% to $910,734 from $230,862, on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The Company also announced that revenues increased 87% to $13.1 million in the Quarter from $7.0 million for the same period in 2008.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, income increased to $1,270,678 from a loss of $138,098 for the same period in 2008. Similarly, EBITDA increased to $2,389,875 for the nine months ended September 30, 2009, compared to $639,413 in the same period in 2008 and revenues increased from $21.9 million to $40.4 million, on a year-over-year basis. Revenue and income include the operating results of Med-Emerg International (MedEmerg) since its acquisition on January 20, 2009.
Lu Michael Barbuto, President and Chief Executive Officer of AIM commented, "Our recently completed $3.5 million financing and our improving operating results put us in a financial position going into 2010 where we can continue to expand operations and seek other growth opportunities within our core competencies."
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I've been picking away at it for about a month. I've heard unverified talk of it possibly moving to the Toronto exchange. Downside looks extremely limited and upside very well could be a multibagger from here. Any input would be appreciated.
